Tuesday, May 15, 2012

The Third Quarter of 2012


Although Todd Haley is no longer the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, the quarter approach to a season is a popular and can be an effective one. In my evaluations of the Chiefs first two quarters (click here for the first quarter and here for the second quarter), I have the Chiefs reasonably at 4-4, and boldly at 6-2, through 9 weeks of the season. Here's how the third quarter of the year looks:

Week 10: Monday, Nov. 12
@Pittsburgh Steelers

The Chiefs will start their third quarter with a second consecutive Prime Time game - this time on Monday night  - on the road. And their opponent is one that the Chiefs have gotten to know pretty well. The Chiefs will face the Steelers for the third time in four years. In 2009, the Chiefs pulled one of the biggest upsets of the year, defeating the defending world champions in overtime at Arrowhead 27-24 (it was also the game Andy Studebaker had two interceptions). In 2011, in a Sunday Night football game at Arrowhead, the Chiefs came up short, losing 13-9 after their potential game-winning drive ended in another Tyler Palko interception (you should take away from that game the fact the Chiefs were still in the game with Tyler Palko at quarterback). 

This season has a little added rivalry between the two clubs, with former Chiefs head coach Todd Haley now the offensive coordinator for the Steelers. Haley will want vengeance on his former team, and he'll know the team's strengths and weaknesses. The Steelers have been nothing but consistently good over the years, and there's no reason to believe they will be anything less than that this season. This is the third straight quarter the Chiefs will face a 2011 playoff team, but the Chiefs seem to save their best prime time.

2011 Steelers: 10th Passing (253.4 ypg), 14th Rushing (118.9 ypg), 1st Pass Defense (171.9 ypg), 8th Rush Defense (99.8 ypg); 12-4 record

Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 18
Cincinnati Bengals

Facing their second straight 2011 playoff team in as many weeks, the Chiefs will need to make a statement about what kind of team they are. That's because the Bengals and Chiefs aren't that different of teams. There are striking similarities between the upstart 2011 Bengals and the upstart 2010 Chiefs. Both teams surprised most everyone on their way to a playoff appearance, and both teams had a lot of young talent. 

What's so impressive about the Bengals 2011 season is that they were the third team out of the AFC North - behind the Ravens and Steelers - and were lead by a Andy Dalton, a rookie QB, and A.J. Green, a rookie WR. They added to that offensive core by signing free agent RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis from New England. But like most surprises, success isn't a guaranteed constant. If the 2011 Bengals are like the 2010 Chiefs, then they will go through a bit of a regression this season, which could be the result of the all-to-common sophomore slump that some quarterbacks experience (see Bradford, Sam). With this game being at Arrowhead, I am looking for the Chiefs to make a positive statement. 

2011 Bengals: 20th Passing (208.8 ypg), 19th Rushing (111.1 ypg), 9th Pass Defense (211.6 ypg), 10th Rush Defense (104.7 ypg); 9-7 record

Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25
Denver Broncos

Finally, this is it. The Mother-of-All-Games this season. Fans will be reserving their tickets to this game as soon as they become available, because of the importance of this game, and who is at the helm of the opposing team. Peyton Manning, the most sought after free agent in history, seemingly scorned the Chiefs as a suitor and chose their division rival, the Broncos, instead. It will be the first time Manning enters Arrowhead as a Bronco, and you would be crazy not to believe the Chiefs will respond likewise. It will also be the third straight 2011 playoff team the Chiefs face.

A lot has been said since Manning joined the Broncos about how Romeo Crennel has always planned defenses that have limited and held Manning to that of an average quarterback. If the Chiefs hope to win - remember, they couldn't even beat Tim Tebow and the Broncos in Arrowhead last season - Crennel is going to need another one of those genius game plans that put the Chiefs defense in a position to succeed against one of the greatest QBs of all time (and probably one of the best in the NFL for 2012 if his injuries heal properly). It's going to be tough, but I like the home team in this one.

2011 Broncos: 31st Passing (152.1 ypg), 1st Rushing (164.5 ypg), 18th Pass Defense (231.5 ypg), 22nd Rush Defense (126.3 ypg); 8-8 record

Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2
Carolina Panthers

The Chiefs third straight home game in the quarter comes against the Carolina Panthers. Dreadful in 2010, the Panthers were awarded (?) the number one pick in the draft, which they used on QB Cam Newton. Despite the doubts surrounding Newton's selection, he went on to become Rookie of the Year, leading the Panthers to 6 hard-earned wins. 

Being in different conferences, the Chiefs and Panthers don't meet very often, last squaring off in 2008 with a 34-0 Carolina victory. And although the Chiefs have vastly improved since that time, no one should sleep on the Panthers in 2012. I truly believe they are a year or two from being a very good team, and could surprise a lot of people by contending in the very competitive NFC South this coming season. I don't, however, think they are at the level to win on the road at the kind of environment Arrowhead offers quite yet. 

2011 Panthers: 13th Passing (239.3 ypg), 3rd Rushing (150.5 ypg), 24th Pass Defense (246.8 ypg), 25th Rush Defense (130.8 ypg); 6-10 record

Predicted Chiefs Record through 13 weeks: 7-5
Being Bold: 9-3

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