This time last week, many analysts were predicting Luke Kuechly, ILB from Boston College, to the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the 2012 draft. While many would have loved for that to happen, Kuechly went two slots earlier to the Carolina Panthers with the ninth overall pick. When Kuechly went off the board, I was anxious in awaiting the Chiefs announcement. Dontari Poe, of course, ended up being the selection; but even if Kuechly was on the board at 11, I don't think the Chiefs would have taken him.
The reason I don't think the Chiefs were interested in Kuechly isn't because of the type of player he is, and it's not necessarily because of the type of player Poe is. The reason is because of the position Kuechly plays, and how little need Pioli believes exists at that position.
While ESPN's draft coverage continued to have the ILB position listed as a team need, the Chiefs went all 8 draft picks over the course of three days without selecting one. And, of their 15 undrafted rookie free agent signings the team announced on Monday, only one was an inside linebacker - Dexter Heyman, Louisville.
Not addressing the ILB position last weekend might have concerned some fans, but I interpreted it as a big vote of confidence for the players already on the roster, specifically: Jovan Belcher.
Belcher was an undrafted free agent himself in 2009, coming out of the University of Maine. An a UDFA, it was a longshot that he'd even make the roster that first season. Fast-forward to 2012, and Belcher is an established starter next to Derrick Johnson in the Chiefs defense and Scott Pioli might have given him the biggest vote of confidence of the offseason - at least, the biggest vote of confidence to someone who is scheduled to hit free agency after this season (lookin' at you Dwayne Bowe).
Sure, Pioli did bring in ILB Brandon Siler during free agency last year, but Siler missed the season due to tearing his Achilles in training camp and Belcher went on to have a very solid and productive year - Belcher finished 2011 with 87 tackles.
An upgrade, however, could exist. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Chiefs interior defense was the weakest spot for the team, and Belcher didn't help much. He finished with no sacks, no passes defended, no interceptions and just three tackles-for-loss. It was this lack of statistics that caused many analysts to discount the importance of Belcher and project the Chiefs needing to take an ILB to replace Belcher at some point during the draft. What most of those same analysts don't know is most of what Belcher does won't show up in the stat sheet.
As Josh Looney from KCChiefs.com explained in December of last year, Belcher was Kansas City's "thumper" on defense. Looney went on to explain that as the "Mike" linebacker in the Chiefs 3-4 defense, it was Belcher's duty to handle the "dirty work": the elimination of lead blockers.
"Probably half of my tackles come from Jovan blowing somebody up and I’m scraping over the top,” Derrick Johnson said. “He’s not a selfish guy. He knows what he has to do in this defense to allow certain people to scrape over the top for tackles. Sometimes in the 3-4 defense you have to be a sacrifice guy.”
While Belcher might sacrifice his statistics for the betterment of the team, it does not go unnoticed. Would Kuechly, who could create more pressure up the middle, be an upgrade to Belcher? I believe so; but one of the knocks on Kuechly is that he wasn't great at taking on blockers, something he'd have to do with Chiefs. In other words, Kuechly would make a better Derrick Johnson than a Jovan Belcher.
I don't think Belcher's job is safe down the road (whose is?). After all, Belcher was a restricted free agent until March 22nd, when he signed his RFA tender, which means 2012 could be his last season with the Chiefs. But I do believe that his job is safe for this season and, if this year's draft was any indication of how Scott Pioli regards Belcher, I have to believe an Andy Studebaker type of extension - 3 years, $5.74 million - will be making it's way to the Thumper this season.
And it would be well deserved.
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