With Kyle Orton expected to report to Chiefs camp tomorrow, Kansas City prepares for the Pittsburgh Steelers with Tyler Palko as the starter. It's still not clear if Orton will actually be a starter for the Chiefs anytime this season, but the cost of having Orton on the roster must be evaluated.
I'm not talking about the money spent to claim Orton off of waivers, which still varies in reports from $1.55 million to $2.6 million. This isn't a lot of money considering Orton is an experienced NFL starter and we will easily get that much worth back in a compensatory pick in the future draft. What I am talking about is what Orton could cost the Chiefs in 2012.
Todd Haley spoke to Kyle Orton by phone today and said that Orton sounded "genuinely excited." I'm sure Orton is, and he should be. Orton is a free agent at season's end, so he will be competing for the Chiefs starting QB job immediately to showcase his talents for potential suitors next year. He knows the Chiefs isn't a long-term thing, so he wants to do his best with this opportunity and earn a job next year.
This is, unfortunately, a bad thing. A QB as talented and experienced as Orton playing for a new contract is a dangerous combination for the 2012 draft.
The Chiefs are only two games out in the AFC West, but that two games feels more like six. The Chiefs are on their second three loss skid, and have the toughest remaining schedule. Call me pessimistic, but facing the Steelers, Bears, Jets and Packers in the next four weeks doesn't instill much confidence in me.
If I was a little more optimistic, however, I would say that the two games we are back in the division can be made up by the end of the season. The Raiders, being the first place team in the division, face the Bears, Dolphins, Packers, Lions, Chiefs and Chargers. The Broncos, one game back, face the Chargers, Vikings, Bears, Patriots, Bills and Chiefs. Seeing these schedules, if the Chiefs perform at the level they did during their four game win-streak, it is conceivable that they catch up in the division. This is, I suppose, what the front office and Scott Pioli were thinking when they claimed Orton Tuesday.
If the Chiefs do perform at a high level, win games, and watch the teams in the AFC West stumble, propelling them to the playoffs, then I will be ecstatic. I will go to a home playoff game, cheer my hardest, and never be happier. I don't think this is going to happen though. And that's where the risk of Orton comes in.
Suppose that Orton comes in as the starter in a couple of weeks, wins a couple of games before the end of the season, and the Chiefs still don't make the playoffs. With each additional win we get, we don't necessarily propel ourselves closer to a playoff berth, but we do propel ourselves further down the 2012 draft order.
I was never on the Suck4Luck bandwagon. When fans starting jumping on board after the second game of the season, I began chastising them that it was far to early in the season to look for the number one overall draft pick. There were still plenty of games yet to be played. When the Chiefs went on a four game win-streak, I was a believer, and the playoffs were all I could think about. Now after watching three straight disappointing losses, having our starting QB go down for the season, and our once first place standing being squandered, I just can't convince myself that the Chiefs belong or even deserve to be in the postseason.
A couple of pointless wins by Orton could sabotage all the good that could come from an awful and injury-plagued season (unless it keeps Todd Haley's job).
The Chiefs had the ninth chance to claim Orton of all 32 NFL teams. This was based on the season's record. That means, if the season ended today, the Chiefs would have the ninth pick in the draft. The eight teams in front of them were: Colts (0-10), Panthers (2-8), Rams (2-8), Vikings (2-8), Cardinals (3-7), Redskins (3-7), Jaguars (3-7) and Dolphins (3-8). If the Chiefs don't win another game this year (which is a realistic possibility with or without Orton), that could easily turn in to a top five pick.
A top ten or top five pick would almost guarantee the Chiefs the player of their choosing, and if it was up to me, that player will be a quarterback.
Let's assume for a second that Scott Pioli and I are on the same page as far as the 2012 draft is concerned. Cassel may have been injured this season, but he proved ineffective most of the year and has already received all the guaranteed money his contract specified. You let Orton leave in free agency, and you keep Cassel around on his contract to mentor the newly drafted quarterback for a season. Drafting QBs in the middle rounds (such as Ricky Stanzi) are a haphazard venture, and while the same could be said for drafting QBs in the first round, the task isn't as scary as the alternative and the 2011 draft might have eased the minds of many GMs given the success the quarterbacks drafted have shown.
Now assume for another second that Pioli and I are, once again, on the same page. No matter how the Chiefs finish the season, they won't have the number one overall pick, that will belong to the Colts. And with that pick will go Andrew Luck, the quarterback phenom from Stanford. But this 2012 quarterback class has the potential of being one of the deepest drafts ever. It's hard to pass up on an opportunity like that, but what quarterback would the Chiefs be able to take? If the draft order remains the same as Tuesday's waiver order, then I think the Chiefs could have a chance at a player I am absolutely crazy about: Matt Barkley.
Barkley has quietly put together a Heisman-esque season, and if it wasn't for Andrew Luck, might be considered the best quarterback available. The USC QB is 273/404 (67.6%) for 3,105, 33 TDs and 7 INTs. There is no way, however, that the Chiefs land Barkley if they win any more games.
With the current waiver order that I mentioned above, there are three teams before the Chiefs that could take a quarterback in the first round. The Colts almost certainly will, the Redskins could, and the Dolphins could. Both the Redskins and the Dolphins have one less win than the Chiefs at this moment. The Redskins and Dolphins have lost several heartbreakers this season, so it's reasonable to guess that they will win at least one more game (and as I write this, the Dolphins lose by one point against the Cowboys). Hopefully, both will win two, and the Chiefs can springboard into the position to take the second-best QB available without having to trade up, something I could never see Pioli do.
Given that opportunity, I don't see a logical reason why the Chiefs shouldn't take Barkley. He has the upside that, if fulfilled, could lead the Chiefs to one of the most successful periods in its history. The Cassel era should be over, making way for a young quarterback that could lead the franchise for the next ten seasons. But the Chiefs won't have a chance, without trading up, to grab Barkley in the draft if Orton (or even Palko) leads them to a victory in the next six games. And although I refuse to root against the Chiefs, I won't be disappointed if they lose. The amount of injuries sustained this season is unfair and has essentially eliminated the chance to defend our AFC West title. But the season doesn't have to be in vain if it causes the Chiefs to draft a franchise QB.
One win from Orton could be the highest cost the Chiefs have ever paid.
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