With the playoffs in full swing and the conference championships set, it's natural for fans of teams on the outside looking in to wonder about how the remaining teams have got to this point. They can look at management styles, they can look at coaching, but the main thing that it comes down to are the players that team has representing them on the field.
Seeing the players on the field, and the talent these remaining teams - Giants, 49ers, Ravens and Patriots - possess, it's fair to assume this talent is related to drafting and free agency. And while everyone loves free agency because it gives fans something to constantly talk about, the draft is what builds teams. The playoffs show you how important it is.
Let's look at the offenses: Of the four remaining teams' starting offenses according to NFL.com's current depth charts (44 players), there are 15 first round draft picks. That's 34.1%. When you exclude full backs, that number raises to 37.5%. And three of the four teams have a first round pick at quarterback. Second round picks made up 25% of the offenses, third round was 9%, fourth 2%, fifth 5%, sixth 5%, seventh 2%, and undrafted free agents 18% (two of four Full Backs). Of these four teams, no one comes close to the 49ers, who have 7 first round draft picks, and no undrafted free agents on their roster.
For defense, the numbers break down as: 18 first round picks - 41%, second round made up 16%, third round was 11.4%, fourth round 9%, fifth round 9%, sixth round 2.3%, seventh round 2.3%, undrafted free agents 9%. Any guesses on the teams with the most first round picks? It's tied with five between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers. Go figure.
Correlation does not equal causation and these numbers could not mean a thing. But just for fun, let's see how the Chiefs starting offense and defense breaks down to these comparisons:
The Chiefs offense at the end of the season consisted of 3 first round picks (27%), 2 third round picks (18%), 2 fourth round picks (18%), 1 fifth round pick (9%), 1 sixth round pick (9%), and 2 undrafted free agents (18%). The four remaining playoff teams averaged 68.1% of their offensive players drafted in the first three rounds. The Chiefs offense was made up of 45% players drafted in the first three rounds, with the majority coming in the later rounds.
According to these numbers, the Chiefs don't quite have a deep playoff offense. I think we can all agree that's an accurate statement.
For defense, the Chiefs broke down (end of season, so Eric Berry is not included): 4 first round picks (36%), 1 second round pick (9%), 1 third round pick (9%), 2 fifth round picks (18%), 1 sixth round pick (9%), and 2 undrafted free agents (18%). 68.4% of the championship teams' defenses were drafted in the first three rounds, a slightly higher margin than for the offense. The Chiefs defense consisted of 54% of its players drafted in the first three rounds. With Eric Berry back next season, it raises the percentage to 63.5%, still below average, but not by far.
According to these numbers, the Chiefs are close to becoming a deep playoff caliber kind of defense. If the end of the season is any indication, I think most fans would also agree with that state.
Like I said earlier, numbers don't always matter. And since Scott Pioli is wanting to bring the Patriot Way to Kansas City, I find it only fair to compare both teams. The Patriots offense has only two first round picks, 18%, 4 second round picks (36%), 1 sixth round pick (9%) and 4 undrafted free agents (36%). That's 54% drafted in the first three rounds. On defense, 4 first round picks (36%), 2 second round picks (18%), 2 fifth round picks (18%), and 3 undrafted free agents (27%). Once again, that's 54% on defense. These are both below the averages, but very comparable to the Chiefs numbers.
Looking at these numbers, it seems that Scott Pioli is indeed bringing a Patriot strategy to the Chiefs (although most of the players on the team were around before Pioli). So what's keeping the Chiefs Way from resembling the success of the Patriot Way?
Player Experience? Aggressiveness in Free Agency? Coaching?
Or a guy named Tom Brady?
[And yes, I have a lot of free time on my hands with the Chiefs not in the playoffs]
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