Mock drafts are opinions, and thus, everyone seems to have one. And there have been a fair share of those mock drafts that have Texas A&M's quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, going 11th overall to the Kansas City Chiefs. And while I believe everyone is entitled to their opinion - and their mock draft - I happen to find this possible pick the most potentially interesting one in the draft.
Ryan Tannehill, 6-4 222 lbs, is considered by just about everybody as the third best quarterback on the board. The difference between Tannehill and the first two prospects - Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III - is the most disparaging gap between players that play the same position that will likely only be taken a few picks apart. I say this because Luck and RGIII have all the looks of franchise quarterbacks while Tannehill has been conceded by most to be a developmental quarterback; but still a quarterback that most have being taken in the top-fifteen picks of the draft.
If one was to look only at Tannehill's senior season, he would still be the third quarterback off the board, but would look closer to a sure-fired franchise QB than a potentially boom-or-bust prospect. In 2011, Tannehill completed 327 of 531 attempts (62%) for 3,744 yards with 29 TDs and 15 INTs. But scouts like to look at a quarterback's full body of work, and for Tannehill, that only includes 19 starts; 19 starts at QB that is.
For Tannehill's first two seasons at Texas A&M, he was converted to a wide receiver. For a QB going in the first round, this is unheard of; and unfortunately for Tannehill, it has created a learning curve that scouts are concerned about. His athleticism is a great strength, but athleticism can only get you so far at the QB position.
Some issues scouts have is his eye discipline, and has earned a reputation of locking on to his primary receiver the entire play (sound familiar Chiefs fans?). Doug Farrar, from Yahoo Sports Shutdown Corner, also had some additional concerns: "He doesn't have the consistency throwing to all areas to make an idiosyncratic delivery work for him at this point. Has the arm to make all the throws, but occasionally struggles with anticipation on deeper throws -- at times, he'll flat-out miss the target. Tends to "finesse" intermediate throws; doesn't seem to have an understanding of his own velocity and the ability to time it in conjunction with the route tree. Doesn't yet have the ability to adjust when receivers are re-routed by coverage."
Despite these weaknesses, let's not forget that rookie QBs aren't expected to be perfect (besides Luck). There are going to be areas that QBs will have to fix, and as long as that player is willing to learn and develop, then they are usually worth the risk. And there's little doubt that a team will be willing to take that risk in the first half of the draft. Just look at last year, when four QBs went off the board early. But there are three questions that the Chiefs need to ask themselves before considering Tannehill: will he even be available at 11, is he worth the 11th pick, and is QB a position that needs to be addressed in the first round?
I think it's very likely that Tannehill is gone before the Chiefs even pick, and that's because of the Miami Dolphins, who finally have a chance of getting a QB this offseason without the chance of being snubbed for another team. Is he worth the 8th pick? Probably not. But I don't think he would be worth the 11th pick either. Quarterbacks, however, are always overvalued, so there are going to be a lot of teams that disagree with that sentiment.
Now, the Chiefs have to determine whether, with their first round pick, if Ryan Tannehill is the direction they want to go with the franchise. You wouldn't be drafting Tannehill to replace Matt Cassel this season, you would be drafting him to replace Cassel either next season or in 2014. With Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi also on the roster, the issue of how Tannehill would fit on the roster also emerges; my guess: Ricky Stanzi goes down to the practice squad and all hopes of Ricky Stanzi as the future QB in Kansas City go out the window.
But if it's not Tannehill, there's a good chance it would be some other QB. As GM Scott Pioli said during the Chiefs pre-draft press conference, “Ultimately, I think every year, if possible, we’d like to find a way to draft a quarterback because it’s just good business and its smart business. Now, who that is, when we do it, how we do it, you never know.”
If the Chiefs were to fulfill this draft wish, why not do so with Tannehill? The potential is there, but will the Chiefs pull the trigger?
If one was to look only at Tannehill's senior season, he would still be the third quarterback off the board, but would look closer to a sure-fired franchise QB than a potentially boom-or-bust prospect. In 2011, Tannehill completed 327 of 531 attempts (62%) for 3,744 yards with 29 TDs and 15 INTs. But scouts like to look at a quarterback's full body of work, and for Tannehill, that only includes 19 starts; 19 starts at QB that is.
For Tannehill's first two seasons at Texas A&M, he was converted to a wide receiver. For a QB going in the first round, this is unheard of; and unfortunately for Tannehill, it has created a learning curve that scouts are concerned about. His athleticism is a great strength, but athleticism can only get you so far at the QB position.
Some issues scouts have is his eye discipline, and has earned a reputation of locking on to his primary receiver the entire play (sound familiar Chiefs fans?). Doug Farrar, from Yahoo Sports Shutdown Corner, also had some additional concerns: "He doesn't have the consistency throwing to all areas to make an idiosyncratic delivery work for him at this point. Has the arm to make all the throws, but occasionally struggles with anticipation on deeper throws -- at times, he'll flat-out miss the target. Tends to "finesse" intermediate throws; doesn't seem to have an understanding of his own velocity and the ability to time it in conjunction with the route tree. Doesn't yet have the ability to adjust when receivers are re-routed by coverage."
Despite these weaknesses, let's not forget that rookie QBs aren't expected to be perfect (besides Luck). There are going to be areas that QBs will have to fix, and as long as that player is willing to learn and develop, then they are usually worth the risk. And there's little doubt that a team will be willing to take that risk in the first half of the draft. Just look at last year, when four QBs went off the board early. But there are three questions that the Chiefs need to ask themselves before considering Tannehill: will he even be available at 11, is he worth the 11th pick, and is QB a position that needs to be addressed in the first round?
I think it's very likely that Tannehill is gone before the Chiefs even pick, and that's because of the Miami Dolphins, who finally have a chance of getting a QB this offseason without the chance of being snubbed for another team. Is he worth the 8th pick? Probably not. But I don't think he would be worth the 11th pick either. Quarterbacks, however, are always overvalued, so there are going to be a lot of teams that disagree with that sentiment.
Now, the Chiefs have to determine whether, with their first round pick, if Ryan Tannehill is the direction they want to go with the franchise. You wouldn't be drafting Tannehill to replace Matt Cassel this season, you would be drafting him to replace Cassel either next season or in 2014. With Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi also on the roster, the issue of how Tannehill would fit on the roster also emerges; my guess: Ricky Stanzi goes down to the practice squad and all hopes of Ricky Stanzi as the future QB in Kansas City go out the window.
But if it's not Tannehill, there's a good chance it would be some other QB. As GM Scott Pioli said during the Chiefs pre-draft press conference, “Ultimately, I think every year, if possible, we’d like to find a way to draft a quarterback because it’s just good business and its smart business. Now, who that is, when we do it, how we do it, you never know.”
If the Chiefs were to fulfill this draft wish, why not do so with Tannehill? The potential is there, but will the Chiefs pull the trigger?
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