Draft History 101

The draft is on the near horizon, and everyone is trying to make projections of what players their team will draft and what positions are the most in need (my mock draft is coming out in May, I refuse to do it any sooner).

Well, to get you ready for the draft, I will be having a series of "Draft History" lessons, in which I will go in to detail of a certain aspect of the draft from the Chiefs perspective.

As you can see above, this is simple Draft History 101. The other posts that I do will get slightly more in-depth or slightly more narrow on a certain aspect. They will be labeled 202, 303, and so on (just like college classes).

Anyway, let's get started.

Today's lecture will be on the Chiefs drafting in the 1st round since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. Every fan for every team always wonders who their team will pick first. Well, although it's still an uncertainty until draft day, knowing the history of a team's drafting can actually help. I know this sounds crazy to anyone that didn't enjoy history class in high school, but there's a reason the subject is taught.

And to simplify it a little more, I will only count the following positions that were taken in the first round: center, nose tackle, linebacker, wide receiver, and quarterback. These are the positions that most Chiefs fans (including Cassel-haters) would like to see filled with the first round selection.

Before I get started, I will explain one part. I will be doing positions drafted. And what I mean by that is if a player was converted to a different position once a pro, it doesn't matter. For example, both Derrick Thomas and Tamba Hali were drafted as defensive ends out of college, but were converted to a linebacker in the pros.

Since 1970, here's how the Chiefs draft breaks down:

• Center: 0
• Nose Tackle: 1
• Bill Maas in 1984
• Linebacker: 2
• Percy Snow in 1990
• Derrick Johnson in 2005
• Wide Receiver: 4
• Elmo Wright in 1971
• Anthony Hancock in 1982
• Sylvester Morris in 2000
• Dwayne Bowe in 2007
• Quarterback: 2
• Steve Fuller in 1979
• Todd Blackledge in 1983

As you can see, center has not been a big concern for the Chiefs in the past. In fact, in the 40 years of drafting I just covered, only nine players were drafted that fit the position that fans want this year.

And yes, these numbers do mean something.

League wide, center is usually not an extremely high drafted position, and few are drafted in the first round. Linebacker is more common, as well as wide receiver. The Chiefs are a rarity, however, with the quarterback position, only drafting two ever in the first round; but don't expect that to change this season. And as far as nose tackle, they are also not very common in the first round because not every team runs a 3-4 and requires a big nose tackle.

Using these percentages, it seems that drafting a linebacker or a wide receiver is the most likely. However, more goes into the draft than that. The 'more' of which I speak of is free agency. Depending on what the Chiefs do in free agency, one of these positions could show it prevalence over the other. 

As always, we will have to wait and see.