The Manning Enigma

My friend and I have spent many hours of the week talking about the Chiefs. Whether it be casual conversation or irate ranting, we have always offered sounding boards for each other's ideas and thoughts. Recently, I have noticed a change in demeanor regarding a certain quarterback in the NFL. That QB is none other than Peyton Manning.

Peyton Manning has been an insurmountable opponent for the Chiefs over the years, the reason why my friend has had ill will towards the eldest Manning quarterback in the past. The Manning-lead Colts disappointed the 2006 Chiefs in the playoffs when KC barely got in. But no time was more heartbreaking than the juggernaut 2003 Chiefs home loss to the visiting Colts. It was the greatest season the Chiefs have enjoyed in the last decade, but the 13-3 Chiefs couldn't stop Manning's offense and was eliminated.

So Chiefs fans have every reason in the world to dislike Manning and his Colts. But how many hearts would be mended if the assumed-to-be free agent joined the team he has given so much turmoil to in the past? In regards to my friend, at least one.

Since it became accepted that Manning will most likely not return to the Colts next year after missing the entire 2011 season due to a neck injury, fans for teams far and wide have contemplated #18 coming to their team and making them an instant contender.

Fans aren't alone in that sentiment it seems. Owners and general managers of teams have indicated that they will pursue Peyton Manning if healthy. Among these teams are the Redskins, Cardinals and Dolphins. The Dolphins, many speculate, make the most sense and are on Manning's short list. They've got solid players on offense, a good defense, are in a warm-weather climate and have no long term commitments at the quarterback position.

But there is one key phrase I mentioned above that will make all the difference in the pursuit of the four-time NFL MVP: 'if healthy.'

Manning is coming off a neck surgery that many doctors thought could end his career. The initial prognosis didn't look good, but as of late, Manning has been cleared by doctors if he wants to return to playing football. If this was all the information teams had about Manning's status, then there would be no controversy. Many scouts, however, have seen Manning throw during rehabilitation exercises and report plenty of concerns with his performance.

Indianapolis Star reporter, Bob Kravitz, said on a radio show last week that Manning's arm "is a noodle." "He can't throw like an NFL quarterback and by March 8th [regarding the day Manning's $28 million option comes into effect if the Colts were willing to exercise it] there's no way of knowing if he’s going to be ready or not.

“I know some of the people that have seen him throw. They say he’s not throwing like an NFL quarterback yet, but that doesn’t mean he never will,” Kravitz said. “This thing is going to take time. Structurally, he’s sound. Structurally, he can take a hit. He’s not an NFL quarterback right now, that doesn’t say that he won’t be in a couple of months.”

A noodle arm isn't exactly what you want from a potentially very expensive commodity. Michael Lombardi of NFL Network added: "He can't throw the ball to his left. He can't throw the ball across his body, because he doesn't feel it. People that catch the ball for him say he doesn't really have velocity on the ball yet.”

As risky as these scouting reports coming back may seem, Manning and his agent don't seem concerned about the recovery process.

"There had been substantial discussion that (Manning) wasn't going to be able to play, and that it was too dangerous and foolish for him to even think about it, and that's not accurate," Manning's agent Tom Condon said.

"He is sound in the structural part of his neck and he can certainly take a hit and play a football game. How effective he would be in the game … probably not as effective today as he would be two months from now. He’s on a timeline. … We expect him to play.”

In an interview with ESPN at the beginning of the month, here's what Manning himself had to say: "I really feel good. I continue to make progress every day," he said. "Everything that the doctors have told me has been on point, which is encouraging to me. I just had a great day today with rehab, just got back from the facility, and that's what we continue to do. Just keep trying to get better. So far I have. That's the plan from here on out."

So initial reports aside, let's assume that Peyton Manning becomes one of the most coveted free agent acquisitions in history. What team will he choose? I don't know. What team should he choose? Why not the Chiefs? And here's why:

1. Unlike relocation to the Dolphins or the Redskins, playing for the Chiefs would land Manning in the AFC West, one of the easiest divisions in the NFL. The Chiefs, who are already considered contenders for the division title with Matt Cassel, would take that next step towards a championship caliber team that fans have been waiting years for. Going to the Dolphins would mean facing Tom Brady and the hard-hitting Jets twice a year. Going to the Redskins would mean facing the current world champ Giants and the other Manning twice a year.
2. As I said above, the Chiefs are already contenders. The Chiefs are coming off a 7-9 season after losing several key figures to Injured Reserve early in the season. These players returns will make the Chiefs perhaps the best or, at least, most well-rounded team that Manning would be a part of. He would have Dwayne Bowe (assuming he is franchised), Steve Breaston, Jon Baldwin, Dexter McCluster and Tony Moeaki to throw to and Jamaal Charles to hand off to. These players offer Manning one of the quickest routes for success in teams that are interested (which I think is much more important to Manning than a warm climate).
3. Unlike Todd Haley, Romeo Crennel is the type of coach that Manning has enjoyed for the majority of his career; a calm guy who's players love him. And, as Bill Barnwell from Grantland pointed out in mid-December when he named the Chiefs the #8 team that most makes sense for Manning to go, they have one of the best medical staffs in football that could help keep Manning healthy going forward. 
4. And this move doesn't just make sense for Manning, it makes sense for the Chiefs. They have $63 million in cap room. As Nick Wright pointed out via Twitter earlier, "KC could sign Carr, Bowe a top O and D Lineman and still offer Peyton 1yr $30M. No reason not to." And in reality, Peyton's contract doesn't have to be that much. Manning knows there is uncertainty about his future, and sources close to the QB have told teams that he is open to an entirely incentive-laden contract based on performance. This lessens the risk of picking up Manning in free agency and puts the pressure on Manning to actually play during the season. This sounds like something Scott Pioli should be all over.

Bringing in Peyton Manning is certainly a short term fix. Even Manning couldn't answer how many years he'd have left before retirement, simply responding "hard to say" when asked by ESPN. It's this reason that some sports commentators have offered caution when speaking of Manning. Former QB and current sports analyst, Joe Theismann, was critical of the idea of the Redskins pursuing Manning in free agency. 

"It's not a good idea, it's not a bad idea -- It's a horrific idea," he told a Washington radio station. "It would be one of the poorest things that we could do as a franchise. Are we gonna go find another guy for just a couple of years again? Haven't we done this before? Haven't we seen this act before? And by the way, if you get Peyton Manning, don't you have a concern about protecting him? Don't you have a concern about who he throws the football to? We're tired of looking for stop gaps.

"It's time to draft one of your own, or make a deal for a young one of your own, and nurture him, and then put the players around him. If we're gonna be 5-11, if we're gonna be 6-10, let's do it with somebody who's [learning as he goes], instead of guys that have been here, making mistakes."

Certainly I agree with Theismann's take on the importance of developing a franchise quarterback, but the Chiefs weren't going to do that anyway. All signs lead to riding out the storm with Matt Cassel. But if Pioli doesn't want to use a high draft pick on the quarterback position now or in the near future, I'd have to believe the upside of Manning far outweighs any upside offered by Cassel.

So for the Chiefs: Why not Peyton Manning? And for Peyton Manning: Why not the Chiefs? It can be the perfect match if both parties allow it to be. One last chance for glory for a Manning nearing the end, and a small window for the greatest of all football glory for Chiefs fans.

At least consider it.