The Chiefs are on a precipice.
On one side there's a comeback season. If the Chiefs beat the Raiders, they are only a 1/2 game back of Oakland and can then pass the Raiders in the standings after the silver and black take their bye week. The Chargers are 4-1 but haven't looked like an elite team yet this season, and the Chiefs nearly pulled out the win in San Diego a few weeks back. And since the Chiefs play the Chargers on Halloween night following the Raiders game, they could almost completely catch up in the AFC West race with back-to-back wins against division opponents, leading to a 4-3 record and 2-1 in the division. At this point, we can forget about the Suck 4 Luck campaign, two blowouts earlier in the season, and all the injuries suffered; we can instead turn our attention to a tight division race and even start talking about what we would need to happen to make the playoffs. Call it the best case scenario.
On the other side, the Chiefs face a miserable season that only gets worse from here on out. We lose to the Raiders, fall to 2-4 and 0-2 in the division, lose all the confidence we have gained over the two weeks proceeding the bye, and then lose to the Chargers in front of a national audience, all but eliminating our playoff chances. At this point the season is lost, and we just try to finish out the season with some pride. Concerns will be addressed in the offseason, and if Matt Cassel is one of them, then we can't discount the idea of selecting a quarterback high in the draft. And if the Chiefs don't win again this season, then there's even the possibility of Andrew Luck.
But as history has shown us time and time again, there is no such thing as a sure thing. And by sure thing, I am referring to a Super Bowl winning quarterback. As good as John Elway was coming out of the 1983 draft number one overall, it took him until the 1997 season to win a Super Bowl.
So, going with the worst case scenario for the season and looking at quarterbacks for next year, I think it is interesting to see how first round quarterbacks have either succeeded or failed around the league. Since we have looked at quarterbacks in the AFC West, let's look at other quarterbacks around the NFL drafted in the first round since 2001.
Check it out after the jump.
- 2001 - #1 Overall, Michael Vick, Virginia Tech to Atlanta Falcons
- Vick is a four time Pro Bowler (2002, 2004, 2005, 2010), and a one time felon (2007-2009). Played with Falcons and Eagles. 2-3 in the playoffs.
- 2002 - #1 Overall, David Carr, Fresno State to Houston Texans
- Most he can say about his time as a starter is he lead the NFL is completion percentage in 2006. Since his release from Houston, he's been a backup with the Panthers, Giants and 49ers.
- 2002 - #3 Overall, Joey Harrington, Oregon to Detroit Lions
- Never had a winning season, traded in 2006. Played with Dolphins, Falcons and Saints afterwards. Hasn't been in NFL since 2008.
- 2002 - #32 Overall, Patrick Ramsey, Tulane to Washington Redskins
- Never fit in Washington and when he finally got to do more than just split snaps, was the most sacked QB in 2003. He was injured in 2005, and has been a journeyman backup since then, being on seven different NFL team's roster.
- 2003 - #7 Overall, Byron Leftwich, Marshall to Jacksonville Jaguars
- Once a starter in the NFL for the Jaguars, he lost his starting job to David Garrard and has bounced around the league as a backup for four different teams.
- 2003 - #22 Overall, Rex Grossman, Florida to Chicago Bears
- Never superb, Grossman succeeded because of the Bears dominate defense. Grossman is 2-2 in the playoffs with a Super Bowl appearance. He is currently the starter at Washington.
- 2004 - #1 Overall, Eli Manning, Mississippi to San Diego Chargers
- Part of that draft day trade made with the Giants, Manning is a Pro Bowler (2008), Super Bowl Champion (2008) and Super Bowl MVP (2008). He is 4-3 in the playoffs.
- 2004 - #11 Overall, Ben Roethlisberger, Miami OH to Pittsburgh Steelers
- Roethlisberger is a Pro Bowler (2007), two time Super Bowl Champion (2006, 2009) and has appeared in three. He is 10-3 in the playoffs.
- 2004 - #22 Overall, J.P. Losman, Tulane to Buffalo Bills
- Battled injuries most of career and was only able to play one full season. He was not pursued once his contract expired after 2008. He won an UFL Championship in 2009.
- 2005 - #1 Overall, Alex Smith, Utah to San Francisco 49ers
- Never had a winning season, never had the same offensive coordinator from one season to the next. Smith finally looks to be a good QB in this league, having the 49ers at 4-1.
- 2005 - #24 Overall, Aaron Rodgers, California to Green Bay Packers
- The heir to NFL legend Brett Favre couldn't have been easy, but Rodgers makes it look so. He was a Pro Bowler in 2009 and is the reigning Super Bowl MVP.
- 2006 - #3 Overall, Vince Young, Texas to Tennessee Titans
- Went five injury plagued seasons with a NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year selection and two Pro Bowl appearances (2006, 2009) before having a falling out with the Titans in 2010. He was released and is a backup with the Eagles.
- 2006 - #10 Overall, Matt Leinart, USC to Arizona Cardinals
- Backed up Kurt Warner for four seasons, and when he thought he would inherit the starting QB job, was released. He is now a backup in Houston.
- 2006 - #11 Overall, Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt to Denver Broncos
- One time Pro Bowler (2008) and perpetual crybaby, Jay Cutler forced himself out of Denver after three seasons, and is now the starter in Chicago.
- 2007 - #1 Overall, JaMarcus Russell, LSU to Oakland Raiders
- He could throw 60 yards from his knees but couldn't complete a five yard pass. After becoming very overweight, the Raiders released Russell following the 2009 season.
- 2008 - #3 Overall, Matt Ryan, Boston College to Atlanta Falcons
- Brought in to stabilize the Falcons after the Vick fiasco, Ryan was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and was a Pro Bowl selection in 2010. 0-2 in the playoffs.
- 2008 - #18 Overall, Joe Flacco, Delaware to Baltimore Ravens
- Flacco's greatest assets are his deep ball and his defense. But despite his average numbers, he is 4-3 in the playoffs.
- 2009 - #1 Overall, Matthew Stafford, Georgia to Detroit Lions
- Oft injured in his first two seasons, Stafford is leading a rejuvenated Lions team to their best season in decades.
- 2009 - #5 Overall, Mark Sanchez, USC to New York Jets
- Trading up to get Sanchez was a big vote of confidence, but Sanchez has also benefited from his defense. He (the Jets) is 4-2 in the playoffs.
- 2009 - #17 Overall, Josh Freeman, Kansas State to Tampa Bay Bucs
- Small sample size on Freeman, but it includes a 10-6 missed playoff season and he appears to be a very promising starter in the NFL.
- 2010 - #1 Overall, Sam Bradford, Oklahoma to St. Louis Rams
- NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Bradford is struggling in his second season but it's still early.
Yet you wouldn't know it if you look at rosters around the league. The only teams that do not have a first round quarterback on their team are: the Bengals (a recent development), Browns, Saints, Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Cowboys, Chiefs, Cardinals, and Seahawks. That's 10 teams out of 32 that don't currently have a first round draft pick on their team. But does that mean these 10 teams aren't competitive?
No. The Chiefs were in the playoffs last year with a Pro Bowl QB, the Patriots are annually excellent with Tom Brady, the Saints are a year removed from a Super Bowl title with Drew Brees, and the Bengals seem better without Palmer than they were with him. And the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Bills each have promising quarterbacks on their team.
For the other teams, however, that 14% chance might just be worth it.
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