The recent acquisition of Carson Palmer by the Oakland Raiders made me realize something that I had previously been blind to: The AFC West as a whole is probably the best example of the risk that is involved in selecting a quarterback in the first round.
In the AFC West, there are now six quarterbacks that were selected in the first round. I will list them below according to year and position drafted.
- 2003 - #1 Overall, Carson Palmer, USC to Cincinnati Bengals
- 2003 - #19 Overall, Kyle Boller, California to Baltimore Ravens
- 2004 - #4 Overall, Philip Rivers, North Carolina State to New York Giants
- 2005 - #25 Overall, Jason Campbell, Auburn to Washington Redskins
- 2007 - #22 Overall, Brady Quinn, Notre Dame to Cleveland Browns
- 2010 - #25 Overall, Tim Tebow, Florida to Denver Broncos
Carson Palmer is a two time Pro-Bowler (2005, 2006), NFL Alumni Quarterback of the year (2005), and FedEx Air Player of the Year (2005). He was handed the keys to the franchise following his rookie season (he didn't see a snap in 2003, instead learning the position from Jon Kitna), and looked to be a rising star, leading the down-and-out Bengals to the division championship with an 11-5 record in 2005. In the playoffs, Palmer tore his ACL and MCL against the Steelers, and the Bengals lost the game. Palmer, however, proved enough after his stellar season that the Bengals signed him for a six year extension that would keep him in Cincinnati through the 2014 season. But things got complicated after that. The Bengals started to struggle again, and the team became dysfunctional. Palmer started missing more games due to injuries, and when he was playing, was never as good as he had been. His situation with the team became so estranged that he retired instead of continuing to play with the team before the 2011 season. Now he has been traded to the Raiders for two first round picks. Palmer leaves Cincinnati having never won a playoff game for the Bengals.
Kyle Boller, selected just 18 spots behind Palmer, never had the success that his draft position garnered. After being drafted by the Ravens in 2003, Boller started off his rookie season 5-3 before suffering a thigh injury that kept him sidelined most of the remaining season. The 2004 season would be the only time in his career that he would start all 16 regular season games, throwing for 2,559 yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. In 2005, showing signs of promise, Boller played well in nine games, but missed seven games due to a bad case of "turf toe." Boller, however, seemed to be on the rise so it came as a little bit of a surprise when then Ravens coach Brian Billick decided to bring in veteran quarterback Steve McNair during the offseason and declared him the starter for the 2006 season. Boller still played in five games that year, but all the rhythm gained by previous years seemed gone. He played in 12 games in 2007, filling in for an injured Steve McNair. After McNair retired, Boller was given the opportunity to compete for the starting job against Troy Smith and first round pick, Joe Flacco, in 2008. After winning the preseason starting job, Boller would then again become injured and sent to Injured Reserve. He spent 2009 with the Rams, and the last two seasons with the Raiders, never seeing more than a backup role.
Philip Rivers was part of that famous 2004 draft day trade when it was learned that Eli Manning refused to play for the San Diego Chargers, the team that drafted him. The Chargers soon traded for Philip Rivers, who was drafted number four overall by the New York Giants. Since then, Rivers has been a great quarterback for the Chargers. He inherited a good team when he got there, but has since put the team on his back over the last couple of seasons. Rivers is a three time Pro Bowler (2006, 2009, 2010) and has put up the best numbers of any quarterback in his draft class but has failed to do what other 2004 first round selections, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning, have done: win a Super Bowl.
Jason Campbell was selected by the Washington Redskins in 2005, and by 2006, was the starter. Although he showed a lot of potential in his time in Washington, Campbell was never able to break through to that next level. Many analysts thought that Campbell was a bit of a reach when the Redskins traded a third round pick to move up and get him, but Campbell has proved steady over his career only having one season where he threw more interceptions than touchdowns. But because Campbell never wowed, he was traded to the Raiders following the 2009 season, with the Redskins electing to go with recently acquired Donovan McNabb instead. And while continuing to not wow in Oakland, Campbell was doing enough to get his team victories. All-in-all, however, not the kind of performance you want out of a first round pick.
Brady Quinn, was not considered a reach. In fact, when he began to slide in the draft, analysts were wondering which team was going to walk away with a steal in 2007. He would start his rookie season third on the depth chart behind Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson. After horrible performances by Frye to start the season, he was traded to Seattle after week one and Anderson became the starter. Some just assumed it was a matter of time before Quinn won out the starter role, but Anderson went on to have a Pro Bowl season and Quinn only saw eight pass attempts all season. In 2008, the Browns were off to a 3-5 start, and then head coach Romeo Crennel decided to replace Anderson with Quinn. Although Quinn looked decent in his three starts, he broke his pinky and was sidelined the rest of the year. In 2009, Quinn started the season as a starter, but was benched in his third game in favor of Anderson. Quinn would once again become the starter in week 10, and had the best games of his career until missing the last two games due to a foot injury. Quinn was traded to the Broncos before the 2010 season for Peyton Hillis, a 2011 sixth round pick, and a conditional late round 2012 pick. He has yet to see a snap in the regular season for Denver, and, even after being declared second qb on the Broncos depth chart this season, got jumped for the starting role by . . .
Tim Tebow. Perhaps the greatest college football player to ever live, is now the Broncos starting quarterback. When then head coach Josh McDaniels elected to trade his second, third, and fourth round picks to move into the first round again and grab Tebow, a lot of negative things were said. Scouts were low on Tebow, saying he didn't have the skill set to be a NFL-caliber quarterback; be it his slow delivery, his accuracy, or other quarterback inefficiencies. Nevertheless, Tebow was a Bronco. He spent his rookie year behind starter Kyle Orton, and only came in during certain subpackages. He finally got to start the final three games of Denver's lost season, putting up some surprisingly good numbers in spite of being a scout's nightmare. He would end the 2010 season with 654 yards passing with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, as well as 227 yards rushing for 6 touchdowns. After the lockout ended this season, some were saying that Tebow had regressed and was anywhere from the third to fourth best quarterback on the team. Tebow was offended by some of his critics, and spoke out when he felt they had gone too far. With fewer people believing in Tebow, including new coach John Fox, it looked like Tebow wouldn't get his chance. Well, five games into the season and a near late rally against the Chargers after pulling an ineffective Orton, Tim Tebow is getting his chance as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Only time will tell how this turns out, but as polarizing as he is, it's hard not to root for him.
As you can see, drafting a quarterback in the first round is not always the answer for a franchise; really, it's a crap shoot. Only Tebow remains with the team that originally drafted him, and only Rivers and Palmer have lived up to the hype. None of these quarterbacks have delivered a Super Bowl appearance, and only one a playoff win.
I know that the Suck4Luck campaign has sort of lost momentum in Kansas City due to two straight wins and much improved play from Matt Cassel, but if we were to end up with a high draft pick in 2011, should we pursue drafting a quarterback? Should the Chiefs finally join the ranks of AFC West teams with a quarterback selected in the first round (Matt Cassel - 7th round pick; Tyler Palko - undrafted; Ricky Stanzi - 5th round pick) or is the risk just too great past Luck?
Either way, here are some stats to keep your eye on:
Andrew Luck, Stanford - 129/181 (71.3%) 1,719 yards, 18 TDs, 3 INTs
Matt Barkley, USC - 152/223 (68.2%), 1,782 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs
Landry Jones, OU - 171/253 (67.6%), 2,177 yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs
Robert Griffin III, Baylor - 142/182 (78%), 1,950 yards, 22 TDs, 2 INTs
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