Over-Valued Wins?

"It doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile; Winning's winning."- Vin Diesel, The Fast and the Furious

As overused as the above quote is, some would say it's the truth. A win is a win, a permanent mark on a scoreboard; a standings advantage that can never be erased; an earned show of superiority, if only for a day. Once you get that win, it can never be taken away from you (unless you're USC), and enough of them can extend your season into the playoffs.

But are some wins more important and/or impressive than others?

Last year, the Chiefs went 10-6 and reached a playoff game. Yet, despite their success, many analysts were hesitant to give the Chiefs any credit. Instead, they would point to the Chiefs schedule as a weakness, saying the Chiefs had overachieved because of weak opponents and would regress back towards the mean when they had to face a tough opponent in the playoffs. Many Chiefs fans were upset at the lack of credit they believed was due to their beloved team. I was one of those fans. The thing was, however, those analysts appeared to be right. The Chiefs were embarrassed in their playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens 30-7.

Let's take a look at the Chiefs 2010 schedule. Out of the 10 games we won, only one opponent ended up having a winning record, and that was the San Diego Chargers who finished the season at 9-7. Our 10 wins did include a victory over a playoff team, the Seattle Seahawks, but the finished the season at 7-9. So the combined records of all the teams the Chiefs beat last year was 61-99, a 38% winning average. Even though the Chiefs weren't expected to be a contender last season, they soon became one, and many believed it was because of favorable matchups.

Now, this season after two blowout losses and another by a heartbreaking ending, the Chiefs are 3-3 after three straight victories. They are playing on Monday Night Football for a chance at first place in the AFC West, and have re-inspired the fans so that we can be thinking playoffs instead of draft picks. But, once again, is our sudden turnaround due to finding our rhythm and playing solid football, or is it because of our schedule?

The three teams the Chiefs lost to at the beginning of the season - Bills, Lions and Chargers - have a combined record of 13-6, a 68% winning average. The three teams the Chiefs have beat - Vikings, Colts and Raiders - have a combined record of 5-16, a 24% winning average. The Chiefs barely edged out the 1-6 Vikings, who were winless at the time, by a score of 22-17. The Chiefs then had to comeback from down 17-0 in the second quarter to beat the winless Colts 28-24 (the same Colts who just lost to New Orleans 62-7). Finally, going up against a team with a winning record, the Chiefs caught a break against the Raiders. Oakland's quarterback, Jason Campbell, was lost for the season and the Chiefs faced a combination of the backup and the new guy that had been part of the team for less than a week. Plus, running back Darren McFadden was injured early in the game and didn't come back onto the field once leaving. The Chiefs blewout Oakland 28-0, evening their record and sending the Raiders to 4-3.

So, do fans forget about the Chiefs who lost three straight games and fully embrace the Chiefs who have won three straight games and are right back in the division, or do fans look at the numbers and think that they might not be as good as their .500 record?

When I watch the Chiefs, I see a team that can go 13-3 just as likely as they can go 3-13. I believe that any team can win or lose any given Sunday, no matter what the statistics leading up to the game say. This is especially true for the Chiefs. If the players show up, they look like a really good team. So I don't care about the score differential of the first two games, I care about what the Chiefs do in the current game. I don't care if their wins came against struggling opponents, I just care that they won.

Say what you want about the Chiefs start to the season, and I'll say what a certain football legend (who's opinion might mean more to you than Vin Diesel's) once wrote: "It's not whether you get knocked down, it's whether you get up." That was Vince Lombardi, and he knew something about football.

In the meantime, the Chiefs are 3-3 and as ridiculous as some may think it to be, are one win away from first.