This playoff positioning won't change much; the Chiefs have no way of getting a bye and will be either the third or fourth seed. This positioning in seeds, however, could lead to a better chance in playoff success.
As it stands now, here is the AFC playoff picture:
Team | Win | Loss | |
East | Patriots | 13 | 2 |
North | Steelers | 11 | 4 |
West | Chiefs | 10 | 5 |
South | Colts | 9 | 6 |
Wildcard 1 | Ravens | 11 | 4 |
Wildcard 2 | Jets | 10 | 5 |
The Patriots have already clinched the East and home field advantage throughout. The Chiefs have clinched the West. Other than that, everything can change.
If the Steelers win against Cleveland on Sunday, they will clinch the division and the number two spot in the playoffs, giving them a bye. If the Steelers lose on Sunday and the Ravens beat Cincinnati, then they will be the number two seed in the playoffs and have a bye. This would knock the Steelers down to the first wildcard spot.
As far as the South goes, no one has clinched a playoff spot yet. If the Colts beat the Titans in their final game, the Colts win the South. If the Colts lose and the Jaguars beat the Texans, then the Jaguars will win the South.
Where do the Chiefs fall into this playoff positioning?
If the Chiefs win against the Raiders on Sunday, they will be guaranteed the number three spot. If the Chiefs lose and the Colts lose and/or the Jaguars win, the Chiefs will still have the number three spot. If the Chiefs lose and the Colts win, then the Colts will jump the Chiefs in playoff rankings and become the number three seed, dropping the Chiefs down to the number four spot.
Now what's the difference between the three and the four seed? Who the Chiefs play is the answer. If the Chiefs are the three seed, then they will play the second wild card spot. Which means that they will be playing the slightly less successful of the two wild card spots. If they are the four seed, then they will play the first wild card team, which is the more successful of the two.
Currently, the Ravens are the first wild card team and the Jets are number two. After this weekend, all the playoff matches will be set and we will find out who we play for sure. The most likely matchup, however, is that the Jets will play the three seed and the Ravens or Steelers will play the four seed.
Here are the stats of the Jets:
Offense: 20th in the league in passing (208.7 ypg), 6th in rushing (139.9 ypg), 13th in total offense (348.5 ypg)
Defense: 9th in pass defense (205.7 ypg), 5th in run defense (94.5 ypg), 4th in total defense (300.1 ypg)
Now as intimidating as these defensive numbers look, the Jets have lost three of the last four games, are last in the NFL in defensive interceptions, two of their wins came in overtime against the Lions and the Browns, and their quarterback Mark Sanchez has been dealing with some injuries. Despite the Jets surprising run to the AFC Championship game last season (San Diego missed how many field goals?!), they are the team the Chiefs will want to play.
Why not the Ravens or the Steelers? Here's why:
Ravens
Offense: 17th in the league in passing (215.6 ypg), 13th in rushing (115.5 ypg), 20th in total offense (331.1 ypg)
Defense: 15th in pass defense (219.6 ypg), 4th in run defense (94.2 ypg), 8th in total defense (313.8 ypg)
Steelers
Offense: 16th in the league in passing (218.9 ypg), 9th in rushing (121.6 ypg), 15th in total offense (340.5 ypg)
Defense: 14th in pass defense (216.2 ypg), 1st in run defense (64.1 ypg), 2nd in total defense (280.3 ypg)
Now here are some hidden stats. The Steelers are 7th in the league in defensive interceptions (18) and the Ravens are 9th (17). Also, the Steelers are 1st in the NFL in sacks (44). While New York has lost three of its last four games, both Baltimore and Pittsburgh has won three of its last four.
Since 2005, the Steelers have appeared in the playoffs three of those years and won two Superbowls. Since 2005, the Ravens have also appeared in the playoffs three of those years (two straight with quarterback Joe Flacco). Since 2005, the Jets have been to the playoffs twice.
To give you something to reference to, these are the Chiefs stats for the year:
Offense: 28th in the league passing (192.1 ypg), 1st in rushing (167.5 ypg), 9th in total offense (359.6 ypg)
Defense: 20th in pass defense (225.6 ypg), 11th in run defense (103.7 ypg), 11th in total defense (329.3 ypg)
The Jets have the least experience in the playoffs of these three teams. They are the team that I would feel the best playing against. But to ensure that we play the Jets, we have to win against the Raiders (as if we need any more reasons to want to beat Oakland). But the question that remains is: will we play our starters? Is risk of injury worth the reward of momentum?
This is a lead-in to the next post that I will have about whether the Chiefs starters will play and why they should and shouldn't. Just something to look forward to.
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